Having seen the sample coursework and exam paper, I predict the gap will widen. With much less weight given to the coursework, this will (if my prediction is true) will drastically worsen the pass rates at National 5.
29.4% achieve A currently. Any bets on where it ends up next time? Though normalisation will bring pass rates to wherever the powers-at-be want them, so I suppose those figures don’t matter.
Will the mean marks in the exam still be 57%? I doubt it.